The Consequences of Covid-19 on Youth Unemployment in The Bulgaria
Objective: The purpose of this article is to examine how COVID-19 has an impact on unemployment among young people in Bulgaria. It shows the impact of the achieved educational level on the change in the unemployment levels among young people. In addition, this academic work attempts to establish what the future tendency in the development of youth unemployment might be in a subsiding pandemic.
Methodology: The article uses empirical data from the NSI (National Statistical Institute) and Eurostat regarding the level of youth unemployment in Bulgaria on a general and educational scale. A forecast has been made, which is based on a trend model, whose parameters are estimated by the method of the least squares.
Results: Our findings indicate that COVID-19 has had a detrimental effect on unemployment among young people and it has risen during the pandemic. In addition, our forecast illustrates an increase in youth unemployment in the upcoming two years. Despite this, according to the data for Bulgaria, in 2021 compared to 2019, youth unemployment among people with primary and lower education has seen an increase by 7.4%; with 4.2% among those who have acquired secondary education and only with 1% among those with higher education. The analysis illustrates that during the COVID-19 pandemic, young people in Bulgaria with higher education are at a considerably lower risk in comparison to those with lower education.
Implication: The study’s results provides beneficial starting point in improving the performance of the Labour market policy and the development of the educational system.